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The most important economic data expected for this week from June 29 to July 3 2020
Major economies are still struggling with the devastating effects of the Coronavirus, but there are signs of a recovery in the manufacturing and services sector, as employment numbers have improved.
Across the eurozone and in the UK, manufacturing and service PMIs accelerated in June. The European Central Bank released the minutes of its latest policy meeting. During the meeting, the bank increased the Emergency Pandemic Purchase (PEPP) program by 600 billion euros to 1.35 billion.
In the US, manufacturing improved sharply, as the Manufacturing PMI rose from 39.8 to 49.6 points. The estimate was at 50.0, which separates contraction and expansion. First quarter final GDP showed a decrease of 5.0%, unchanged from the prior estimate. Unemployment claims fell from 2.43 million to 2.12 million, which was in line with expectations.
German Initial Consumer Price Index: Monday, all day. Inflation levels remain low across the eurozone. German inflation fell 0.1% in May. However, analysts expect a recovery in June, with an estimate of 0.3%.
China Manufacturing PMI: Tuesday, 04:00. Investors are closely watching the main Chinese indicators, as China is Australia's largest trading partner. The manufacturing PMI was just above the 50.0 level in the past two months, separating deflation from expansion. The estimate for June stands at 50.4 points.
UK Final GDP: Tuesday, 09:00. The preliminary reading of the first quarter GDP is expected to confirm the preliminary reading, with an expectation of -2.0 percent. This comes after a flat 0.0% in the fourth quarter of 2019.
Eurozone inflation: Tuesday, 12:00. Overall consumer inflation started at 1.4%, but this fell to just 0.1% in May. The June estimate stands at -0.1 percent. The base figure was much stronger, with consecutive readings of 0.9 percent. A slight change is expected in June, with a forecast of 0.8 percent.
Powell Fed Chairman Testimony: Tuesday, 15:30. Powell will appear before the House Financial Services Committee, as well as Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin. The testimony can have a major impact on the movement of the dollar.
Canadian GDP: Tuesday, 15:30. Canada exports gross domestic product every month, unlike other major economies, which publish gross domestic product every quarter. In March, the economy showed the effects of the Coruna virus, with a sharp drop of 7.2 percent. However, this was better than the 9.0% forecast. Analysts are preparing for a steeper decline in April, with expectations of -10.5 percent.
Chicago PMI: Tuesday, 13:45. This important measure of economic activity slowed for three months in a row, falling to 32.3 in May. The index is expected to rebound in June, with 42.0 points expected.
US ISM Manufacturing PMI: Wednesday, 17:00. The index continues to decline and remains in a contraction zone since February, with readings below the 50 level. The PMI rose from 41.5 to 43.1 in May and is expected to rise to 49.0 in the June release.
FOMC Meeting Minutes: Wednesday, 21:00. The Fed will publish the minutes of the June meeting. The message from that meeting was that the Fed was focused on keeping markets functioning and financial conditions easy, and that it was likely to repeat in a matter of minutes.
Non-farm payrolls in the US: Friday, 15:30. After rising 2.5 million jobs in May, analysts expect an increase of 3.0 million jobs in June. However, wage growth fell by 1.0% in May, and a further drop of 0.5% is expected. The unemployment rate fell to 13.5% in May, and is expected to decrease to 12.5% in June.
