Economic Analysis

The most important data expected this week

United State

Core CPI (Excluding Food and Energy) (MoM) (July) - Wednesday (02:30 PM)

The US CPI for all non-food and energy items rose 0.7% month over month in June 2022, accelerating from a 0.6% gain in May, and slightly above market expectations of 0.6%.

CPI (YoY) (July) - Wednesday (04:00 PM)

The annual US inflation rate accelerated to 9.1% in June 2022, the highest level since November 1981, from 8.6% in May and above market expectations of 8.8%. Energy prices rose 41.6%, the highest since April 1980, boosted by gasoline (59.9%, the largest increase since March 1980), fuel oil (98.5%), electricity (13.7%, the largest increase since April 2006), and natural gas. . (38.4%, the largest increase since October 2005). Food costs rose 10.4%, the most since February 1981, as household food prices jumped 12.2%, the most since April 1979. Shelter prices have also risen dramatically (5.6%, the most since February 1991) , Home Furniture and Operations (9.5%). ), new vehicles (11.4%), used cars and trucks (1.7%), and airfares (34.1%). Core CPI excluding food and energy rose 5.9%, just below 6% in May, but above expectations of 5.7%.

US Crude Oil Inventories - Wednesday (4:30 pm)

US crude oil inventories rose by 4.467 million barrels in the week ending July 29, while markets had been expecting a decline of 0.629 million barrels. Crude stocks in Cushing, Oklahoma, rose by 0.926 million barrels from 0.751 million barrels injected in the prior period. Gasoline inventories rose by 0.163 million barrels, compared to expectations for a decrease of 1.614 million barrels. Distillate stocks, which include diesel and heating oil, fell by 2.4 million barrels, versus expectations for an increase of 1.038 million.

Unemployment Claims Rates - Thursday (2:30 pm)

The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits rose by 6,000 to 260,000 in the week ended July 30, exceeding market expectations of 259 thousand. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, claims fell 9,285 to 205,587 from the downwardly adjusted value in the past week, with notable declines in Massachusetts (-6,934) and Ohio (-1,801), while claims rose significantly in the state. Connecticut (+7,095). The 4-week moving average, which removes weekly volatility, was at 254,750, an increase of 6,000 from the previous week's downward-revised average of 248,750.

Producer Price Index (MoM) (July) - Thursday (02:30 PM)

Producer prices for final demand in the US jumped 1.1% month over month in June 2022, the highest in three months and above market expectations of 0.8%. Commodity prices jumped 2.4%, well above 1.4% in May, with more than half of the increase due to an 18.5% hike in gasoline prices. Diesel fuel, electric power, residential natural gas, automobiles and equipment, and young chickens also rose. The cost of services increased 0.4%, just below 0.6% in May, mainly due to higher retail food and beverage margins (3.8%). The wholesale prices of machinery and equipment, outpatient care, passenger transportation, guest room rental, and inpatient hospital care also increased. On an annual basis, producer inflation accelerated to 11.3%, the largest increase since registering 11.6% in March. But the core index, which excludes the cost of energy and food, fell to 8.2% annually from 8.3% and monthly 0.4% from 0.6%.

United kingdom

GDP (YoY) (Q2) - Friday (08:00 AM)

The British economy expanded 0.8% on a quarterly basis in the first three months of 2022, the lowest in a year, and in line with initial estimates. The largest contributors were information, communications, transportation, and storage while production was mainly driven by increased industrial production; Construction output rose. Also, household final consumption spending grew 0.6%, while gross fixed capital formation grew by a revised 3.8%. However, household real disposable income declined 0.2%, the fourth consecutive quarter of real negative growth in disposable income. GDP remains 0.7% above the pre-pandemic level.

Manufacturing Production (MoM) (June) - Friday (08:00 AM)

UK industrial production rose 2.3 per cent in May 2022 compared to the same month the previous year, beating market expectations for a 0.2 per cent increase and accelerating from the 1.3 per cent rate rise the previous month.

+2 GMT