NEWS

Energy analysts expect the OPEC+ alliance to announce an oil production increase of 411,000 barrels per day by July, during its upcoming meeting next week.

In a widely anticipated move, OPEC+ agreed in its May 28 meeting to keep 3.6 million barrels per day off the market until the end of 2026. The aim is to stabilize oil prices and limit volatility.

OPEC's secretariat stated that it has been tasked with developing a new mechanism to assess the production capacities of all member countries, which will serve as the basis for setting 2027 production quotas.

Analysts noted that the decision to extend the current production cuts through the end of 2026 could help mitigate the risk of declining demand and falling prices, possibly prompting short sellers to cover their positions. This could lead oil prices to rebound toward the $70 per barrel level.

The upcoming meeting of eight OPEC+ member countries is expected to be critical, especially as markets await a U.S. court ruling on tariffs and its potential impact on global oil demand.

Some analysts believe Kazakhstan is unlikely to cut its output, expecting a final major increase of 411,000 barrels per day.

Meanwhile, S&P Global Commodity Insights (Platts) assessed Brent crude futures at $64.26 per barrel on May 27, down from $77.68 per barrel at the beginning of April.

OPEC+ had announced its first surprise and accelerated easing of production cuts on April 3, one day after the U.S. administration imposed wide-ranging tariffs on global trade partners.

According to energy consultancy sources, OPEC+ will likely follow a similar approach to 2024 in its review of national production capacities for setting 2027 quotas. This makes the July meeting particularly important for shaping the group’s future production policy.

The next full ministerial meeting of OPEC+ is scheduled for November 30, 2025, where group-wide production cuts will be reviewed. No changes have been made to the current reductions since December, when they were extended through the end of 2026.

Earlier this month, eight OPEC+ countries—including Saudi Arabia, Russia, and six other members—announced a sharp increase in oil output for June 2025, raising production by 411,000 barrels per day, consistent with May levels. This exceeds the original plan, which called for an increase of only 137,000 barrels per day.

Oil prices rose on Thursday after a U.S. court blocked the implementation of most tariffs announced by the administration, while markets continued to watch for potential new sanctions on Russian oil exports and the anticipated OPEC+ decision to raise production in July.

Brent crude futures climbed 78 cents, or 1.2%, to $65.68 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose 78 cents, or 1.3%, to $62.62 per barrel, as of 04:05 GMT.