NEWS

The Federal Reserve released the minutes of its September 2025 meeting, where policymakers decided to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, marking the first rate reduction of the year. According to the minutes, nearly half of the Federal Reserve members expect two additional rate cuts before the end of 2025, a projection consistent with the Fed’s earlier dot plot.

While several members expressed confidence that inflation risks remain broadly stable based on recent data, others warned of the possibility of a resurgence in inflation later this year. At the same time, a significant number of members highlighted the increasing risks of a slowdown in the U.S. labor market, a factor that adds further complexity to monetary policy decisions.

A large majority of policymakers supported the September rate cut of 25 basis points, while one member pushed for a deeper 50-basis-point cut. A smaller group favored no cut at all, citing persistent inflation concerns. According to analysts, including insights shared by Point Trader Group, this divergence reflects the difficult balance between sustaining economic growth and maintaining price stability.

Market Reaction After the Fed Minutes

The release of the minutes did not trigger major surprises in global markets, as much of the information had already been anticipated. Moreover, investors were also preoccupied with ongoing debates surrounding the U.S. government shutdown.

Spot gold prices slipped modestly by $10, falling from $4,050 to $4,040 per ounce.

Gold futures also eased slightly, dropping from $4,079 to $4,065 per ounce.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 index climbed to a record high of 6,755 points, up 0.6% on the day.

Analysts from Point Trader Group highlighted that the muted market reaction signals that traders had largely priced in the Fed’s policy direction before the minutes were published.

Market Behavior Before the Release

In the hour leading up to the release of the Fed minutes, market conditions looked somewhat different:

Gold (XAUUSD) rose by 1.64%, reaching $4,049.83 per ounce, with an intraday peak at $4,059.3.

Gold futures climbed to $4,072.17 per ounce, up 1.7%, and hit a record intraday high of $4,080.9.

At the same time, the S&P 500 index advanced to 6,755 points, gaining 0.55% during the session and more than 40% since its April low.

As Point Trader Group has previously noted, gold often acts as a safe-haven asset during periods of economic uncertainty, while U.S. equities continue to benefit from optimism over future interest rate policy.

Dollar Index Movement

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) gained 0.44% to trade at 98.715 against a basket of major currencies, rebounding from its yearly low of 95.8 and reaching its strongest level since early August. This three-day rally in the dollar reflects renewed investor confidence in U.S. assets.

According to market analysis from Point Trader Group, the strength of the dollar could place additional pressure on commodities, particularly gold, over the coming weeks.

Outlook and Economic Implications

The September Fed minutes underscore the central bank’s ongoing challenge: balancing the goal of supporting economic growth with the need to control inflationary pressures. The projection of two more rate cuts in 2025 adds a new layer of uncertainty for global markets, particularly in the commodities and equities space.

For investors, this environment creates both risks and opportunities. Gold remains a critical hedge against inflation and uncertainty, while equities, especially in the U.S., continue to benefit from expectations of looser monetary policy. Meanwhile, the dollar’s performance will be closely watched as a key driver of global capital flows.

As emphasized in reports by Point Trader Group, traders and investors must remain vigilant, tracking not only Fed policy decisions but also broader macroeconomic indicators that can shift sentiment quickly. With inflation risks, labor market pressures, and geopolitical uncertainties still in play, the trajectory of the global economy in late 2025 will be shaped heavily by the Fed’s decisions.