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USDTRY Extends Rally to Record Highs Amid Persistent Market Pressures
The USD/TRY pair surged to a fresh all-time high at 40.90 on Monday, marking a 0.32% gain and underscoring the ongoing pressure on the Turkish lira. Despite short periods of stabilization, the lira remains under heavy downside momentum, with the broader trend favoring the dollar.
Continuous Rally Since Early August
Since the beginning of August 2025, the pair has climbed from 40.65 to 40.89, recording consecutive gains over several sessions. This steady performance reflects strong buyer confidence and confirms the dominance of the bullish trend above key support levels.
Technical Outlook: Strong Bullish Signals
Technical indicators point to a sustained upward trajectory for USD/TRY. Moving averages across multiple timeframes suggest buying momentum, while oscillators such as MACD, RSI, and Stochastic show positive signals that highlight strong demand for the dollar against the lira.
The latest breakout above initial resistance reinforces the likelihood of testing new highs in the near term.
Fundamentals: The Role of Interest Rates and Carry Trade
Turkey’s monetary policy remains at the center of market moves. The recent decision to cut interest rates to 43% has fueled the carry trade, where investors borrow in low-yield currencies and invest in the high-yielding lira. This strategy continues to attract short-term inflows, keeping the currency appealing for speculative plays.
However, this also leaves the lira highly vulnerable to sharp volatility if global risk appetite shifts or if the Federal Reserve adjusts its policy stance.
Forward Scenarios
The breakout above 40.90 opens the door for further upside toward resistance levels at 40.9049 and 40.9201, while immediate support lies near 40.8287.
Carry trade positioning will remain a key driver, but global monetary policy shifts and investor sentiment could trigger sudden market swings.
Conclusion
The USD/TRY trend remains firmly bullish, though investors should brace for heightened volatility tied to global interest rate decisions and capital flows.
Within this context, Point Trader Group provides comprehensive market insights to help traders and investors make informed decisions when navigating emerging market currencies.
