Economic Analysis

The British economy was stagnant in the fourth quarter. The fourth quarter final GDP came at 0.0%, confirming the preliminary reading. In Australia, the minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting showed that policymakers were not optimistic about economic conditions, but "did not have an appetite for negative interest rates." Last month, the Reserve Bank of Australia cut interest rates to 0.25%. Canadian GDP slowed to 0.1% in February, matching estimates. This was down from 0.3% in the previous month.

Employment numbers in the United States were very negative, as the Corona virus paralyzed most of the American economy. Unemployment claims rose to 6.6 million, more than double to 3.2 million the previous week. Non-farm payrolls decreased by 701K, much worse than the -100K estimate. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4% from 3.5%. The estimate was 3.8 per cent. The following are the most important data expected this week:

  RBA rate decision: Tuesday, 07:30. The Reserve Bank of Australia cut interest rates from 0.50% to 0.25% on March 19, in an unscheduled emergency meeting. Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe said the move aims to "reduce the economic and financial turmoil caused by the virus." The bank is expected to keep the interest rate at 0.25%, so investors will closely follow the tone of the price statement.

  British GDP: Thursday, 11:30. The monthly GDP release came at 0.0% in January, indicating the recession. February's estimate is weak 0.1%.

  American Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 15:30. Unemployment claims have been very high in recent weeks, as the Corona virus has halted much of the US economy. Unemployment claims rose to 6.6 million last week, well above the estimate of 3.6. Million. The estimates for this week are also staggering at 5.0 million.

European Central Bank Monetary Policy Meeting: Thursday, 14:30. At the March 12 meeting, the European Central Bank chose not to follow the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England and did not lower the key deposit rate, which is -0.5%. The bank also expanded the asset purchase program by 120 billion euros. Investors will be keen to read the session's details.

  American Inflation: Friday, 18:30. Consumer inflation remains low in the United States and is likely to decrease due to the severe economic impact of the corona virus. The main figure came at 0.1% for two consecutive months and the next may be unchanged