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The most important expected economic data for this week, from March 13 to 17, 2023
The most important data expected this week
United State
Core CPI (Excluding Food and Energy) (MoM) (Feb) - Tuesday (2:30pm)
The previous data shows that the index continues to decline clearly in a succession of declines for the fourth month, bringing the index to 5.6% in January 2023, which is the lowest number since December 2021. The figure is still higher than market expectations around 5.5% and also higher than the US Federal Reserve target around 2 %. The next release is expected to be around 5.6% - 5.5%.
Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb) - Wed (02:30pm)
Inflationary pressures are the biggest concern of our time for the US Federal Reserve. The index unexpectedly rose to a significant rate of around 3% in January 2023 which is the largest increase in 9 months and significantly higher than market expectations of around 1.8%. The next release is expected around -0.2% : -0.3%.
PPI (MoM) (Feb) - Wed (02:30pm)
The index rose to 0.7% in January 2023, the most in seven months and above market expectations of 0.4%. This indicator indicates more inflationary pressures and the next release is expected to be around 0.4% - 0.3%.
Building Permits (February) - Thursday (02:30 PM)
Building permits in the US increased slightly from 1.337M to 1.339M by 0.1% in January 2023. The number did not rise much and is close to the average of the past 3 months due to the effect of the rate hike on new home demand due to the higher cost of borrowing. The next release is expected to be around 1.33 - 1.34 million.
Unemployment Claims - Thursday (02:30 PM)
Last week (March 4, 2023), unemployment claims increased by 21,000 to 211,000. This number is higher than the previous number around 190 thousand and higher than market expectations around 195 thousand requests. The increase in jobless claims in this way indicates that the labor market may start to slow down during the coming period, which may give the US Federal Reserve the necessary signals to start reducing interest rates, given the weak data on the US labor market. The next release is expected to be around 214-205k.
Philadelphia Manufacturing Index (March) - Thursday (02:30 PM)
For the sixth consecutive month, the index decreased to -24.3 in February 2023 from -8.9 in January compared to market expectations of -7.4. This reading is the lowest since May 2020. The next release is expected around -12:-15.6.
Euro-zone
ECB Rate Decision (March) - Thursday (03:15 PM)
Policy makers at the European Central Bank agreed that it is appropriate to continue monetary tightening to fight inflation, but with caution so that interest rates do not rise by an amount that could hurt the economy or rise too high. Recent inflation data showed that CPI fell very slightly by 0.1% which may prompt the European Central Bank to raise interest rates by 50 basis points to contain the situation.
CPI (YoY) (Feb) - Friday (12:00 PM)
The index fell to 8.5% in February 2023, the lowest number since May 2022, but higher than market expectations of around 8.2%. These numbers indicate the continuation of inflationary pressures in the euro area, which may push the European Central Bank to continue its tightening policy until inflation is controlled around the target rates around 2%. The next release is expected to be around 8.5%.
GMT +2
