Economic Analysis

The FOMC remained cautious, despite promising US numbers. The British economy is gradually reopening, but the eurozone is still hampered by the slow rollout of the vaccine.

In April, German inflation rose above 2% for the first time in two years. In the Eurozone, the CPI is expected to rise to 1.6% in April from 1.3%. Germany's GDP fell 1.7% in the first quarter from the previous quarter, as Covid-19 slowed the economy.

Canadian GDP posted a gain of 0.4% in February, down from 0.7% in the previous month.

The US dollar fell after the FOMC meeting, as the Fed said it was too early to discuss tapering off. US GDP increased 6.4%, beating expectations of 6.1%. The strong reading was another sign that the US economic recovery is in full swing.

U.S. dollar

US ISM Manufacturing PMI: Monday. Manufacturing continues to show strong growth, as the economic recovery is proceeding at a rapid pace. The PMI improved to 64.7 from 60.8 in February and the March estimate stands at 6

US Employment Report: Friday. The nonfarm payrolls estimate is 975K, and it is definitely possible to print over 1 million. Wage growth remains weak, and the April estimate is 0.0%.

euro

German retail sales: Monday. Retail sales rebounded in February, gaining 1.2% after two consecutive falls. March forecast stands at 2.9%.

Manufacturing PMIs: Monday. Industrialization in the Eurozone continues to show strong growth. The preliminary PMI readings for April were 66.4 in Germany, 63.3 in the euro area and 59.2 in France. Final readings are expected to confirm the initial readings. Level 50 separates neutral contraction and expansion.

Service Purchasing Managers: Wednesday. The services sector was stagnant in April, with readings just above the 50 level. Germany came in at 50.1, the Eurozone at 50.3, and France at 50.4. Upcoming readings are expected to confirm the initial releases.

German Factory Orders: Thursday. Factory orders posted a 1.2% gain in February, close to estimates of 1.3%. The estimate for March stands at 1.5%.

Eurozone retail sales: Thursday. Retail sales rebounded 3.0% in February after two consecutive falls. The Mach estimate stands at 1.5%.

German Industrial Production: Friday. The global chip shortage is negatively affecting carmakers. Industrial production posted two consecutive declines but is expected to post a 2.1% gain in March.

Sterling pound

Manufacturing PMI: Tuesday. Manufacturing continues to show strong growth. PMI rose to 60.7 in April, up from 58.9. The upcoming reading is expected to confirm the initial release.

Service PMI: Thursday. The index continues to accelerate as the British economy reopens. The PMI rose to 60.1 in April, and the second estimate stands at 60.2 points.

Bank of England rate decision: Thursday. The Bank of England is widely expected to keep the official cash rate at 0.10% and asset purchases at £ 895 billion. The economy is performing significantly better than the last meeting, in March, due to the successful introduction of the vaccine. The bank is not expected to pull back at the next meeting, but if policymakers take this step, the British pound could rise significantly. The Bank of England is expected to keep interest rates at 0.10%.

Construction PMI: Tuesday. Construction work accelerated in March, rising from 53.3 to 61.7 points. The estimate for April is 62.0, indicating strong growth.

Australian dollar

AIG Services Index: Sunday. The index jumped to 51.4 in October, up sharply from 36.2 previously. It was the first reading in expansionary territory (over 50) since November 2018. Will we see another positive reading in November?

ANZ job announcements: Monday. The index continues to strengthen, improving to 9.4% in October. Will the rally continue in the November issue?

Business Trust NAB: Tuesday. The National Australia Bank index rebounded in October with a reading of 5, ending a series of three consecutive falls. We are now waiting for the November data.

Westpac Consumer Confidence: Wednesday. Consumer confidence slowed to 2.5% in November, down sharply from 11.9% previously. Investors are hoping for another reading in positive territory.

MI inflation forecast: Thursday. The Melbourne Institute version is a useful gauge of actual levels of inflation. The index rose to 3.5% in October, up from 3.4% previously. Will it continue to rise in the November reading?

Canadian dollar

Manufacturing PMI: Monday. Manufacturing continues to show strong growth. In February, the index rose to 58.5, up sharply from 54.8 previously. We are now waiting for the March data.

Building permits: Tuesday. Building permits rose 2.1% in February. The estimate for March stands at 0.4%.

Employment report: Friday. The job market looked strong, as the economy created 303,000 jobs in March. Will we see another sharp gains in April? The unemployment rate reached 7.5% in March but is expected to rise to 8.0% in April. Wage growth posted a 2.0% gain in March and we now await the April data.

Ivy PMI: Friday. The PMI jumped to 72.9 in March, up from 60.0 previously. The index is expected to decline to 60.5 points in April.