Economic Analysis

The most important data expected this week

United State

Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Non-Manufacturing PMI (September) - Wednesday (04:00 PM)

The ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index rose unexpectedly to 56.9 in August 2022 from 56.7 in July, beating market expectations of 55.1, and indicating the strongest growth in services activity in four months. Business activity (60.9 vs. 59.9) and new orders (61.8 vs. 59.9) expanded faster. Employment also rebounded (50.2 vs. 49.1) despite a constrained labor market rebound while prices rose at a slower pace (71.5, lowest since January 2021 vs. 72.3). “Based on feedback from the Business Survey panel participants, there are some improvements in supply chain, logistics and cost; however, material shortages remain a challenge,” said Anthony Neves, President of ISM.

US Crude Oil Inventories - Wednesday (4:30 pm)

US crude oil inventories decreased by 0.215 million barrels in the week ending September 23, compared to market expectations for an increase of 0.443 million barrels, according to the latest EIA report. This is mainly due to the decline in refining activity after several interruptions. Gasoline stocks also fell by 2.422 million barrels, compared to expectations of 0.709 million barrels, and distillate stocks, which include diesel and heating oil, fell by 2.892 million barrels, more than expectations of 0.069 million barrels. Meanwhile, crude oil inventories in Cushing, Oklahoma, rose by 0.692 million barrels after an increase of 0.343 million.

Unemployment Claims Rates - Thursday (2:30 pm)

The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell by 16,000 to 193,000 in the week that ended September 24, the lowest level since the end of April and well below market expectations of 215,000, indicating an increasingly tight labor market and adding further room for a lift. Interest rates by the Federal Reserve. On a seasonally unadjusted basis, initial claims decreased by 12,642 to 156,060, with notable declines in Michigan (-5,674), New Jersey (-1,521) and New York (-1,266). The 4-week moving average, which removes weekly volatility, is down 8750 from the previous week to 207000

Private Sector Employment Report (September) - Friday (02:30 pm)

The US economy added 315,000 jobs in August of 2022, compared to a downwardly revised 526,000 in July but above market expectations of 300,000, and indicates widespread employment in many sectors. The largest job gains occurred in professional and business services (68 thousand), namely the design of computer systems and related services; Health care (48k), particularly doctors' offices, hospitals, nursing facilities and residential care; and retail trade (44 thousand). Manufacturing added 22,000 jobs, and entertainment and hospitality 31,000, after average monthly gains of 90,000 in the first seven months of the year. August is historically a weaker month in terms of employment, but non-farm employment is now 240,000 higher than the pre-pandemic level in February 2020.

Unemployment Rate (September) - Fri (2:30 pm)

The US unemployment rate rose to 3.7 percent in August of 2022, the highest level since February and above market expectations of 3.5 percent. The number of the unemployed increased by 344 thousand to 6.014 million, while employment levels increased by 442 thousand to 158.732 million. Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate rose to a five-month high of 62.4% in August from 62.1% in July.

United kingdom

Services PMI (September) - Wednesday (10:30 am)

Flash estimates showed that the S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMI fell to 49.2 in September 2022 from 50.9 in August, missing market expectations of 50. This was the first drop in services activity since February 2021, although the rate of decline It was only marginal. There were a number of reports that slowing sales amid the cost-of-living crisis and growing economic uncertainty affected activity levels in September. Looking ahead, expectations in the service sector have reached a 28-month low

euro

European Central Bank Bulletin of Monetary Policy Meeting - Thursday (01:30 pm)

The European Central Bank raised interest rates by an unprecedented 75 basis points at its September 2022 meeting, after raising rates by 50 basis points in July, matching expectations from most analysts. The principal refinancing rate is now at 1.25%, the marginal lending facility is at 1.5% and the first deposit facility is at 0.75%. Policy makers also said that interest rates should rise further over the next several meetings, aiming to dampen demand and guard against risks of a persistent upward shift in inflation expectations, but any changes will continue to be data dependent and will follow one meeting after another. meeting approach. During the press conference, President Lagarde said the ECB is far from the rate that will help bring inflation back to the 2% target. At the same time, the central bank has significantly revised inflation expectations to average 8.1% in 2022, 5.5% in 2023 and 2.3% in 2024 while growth has been revised to 3.1% in 2022, 0.9% in 2023 and 1.9% in 2024.

Canada

Change in Employment (September) - Thursday (02:30 PM)

The European Central Bank raised interest rates by an unprecedented 75 basis points at its September 2022 meeting, after raising rates by 50 basis points in July, matching expectations from most analysts. The principal refinancing rate is now at 1.25%, the marginal lending facility is at 1.5% and the first deposit facility is at 0.75%. Policy makers also said that interest rates should rise further over the next several meetings, aiming to dampen demand and guard against risks of a persistent upward shift in inflation expectations, but any changes will continue to be data dependent and will follow one meeting after another. meeting approach. During the press conference, President Lagarde said the ECB is far from the rate that will help bring inflation back to the 2% target. At the same time, the central bank has significantly revised inflation expectations to an average of 8.1% in 2022, 5.5% in 2023 and 2.3% in 2024, while growth has been revised to 3.1% in 2022, and 0.9% in 2023. , and 1.9% in 2024.

New Zealand

RBNZ Rate Decision - Wednesday (03:00 AM)

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised its official cash rate (OCR) by 50 basis points to a 7-year level of 3.0% during its August meeting, its fourth rate hike by half a point, in line with market consensus. While the RBNZ expected some decline in inflation in the near term due to lower fuel prices and stabilizing freight costs, the RBNZ confirmed that the inflation level will only return to the board's target range by mid-2024 and that further monetary tightening is needed. With a peak of 4.1% in March 2023. The committee added that demand in the economy was resilient during the first half of 2022, but output was constrained by disrupted global supply, labor shortages, and high levels of illness from COVID-19 and other diseases. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has raised a total of 275 basis points since October 2021, when it was at a record low of 0.25%. In terms of housing prices, they have continued to decline towards more sustainable levels and will decline further over the coming months.

ALL TIME +2 GMT