Economic Analysis

The most important data expected this week

United State

Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb) - Wednesday (2:30pm)

US retail sales jumped 3.8% monthly in January 2022, rebounding from an upwardly revised 2.5% decline in December, and much better than market expectations for a 2% rise. It's the biggest increase in retail sales in ten months, as consumers kept spending despite an increase in COVID-19 cases and severe inflation. The largest gains were seen in non-commercial retail stores (14.5%); furniture stores (7.2%); car dealers (5.9%); building materials and garden equipment (4.1%); general merchandise stores (3.6%); electronics stores (1.9%); food and beverage (1.1%); and clothing stores (0.7%). In contrast, sales at petrol stations fell (-1.3%). sporting goods, hobbies, musical instruments, and bookstores (-3%); and restaurants and bars (-0.9%). Excluding automobiles, retail sales increased by 3.3% and excluding automobiles and gas by 3.8%.

US Crude Oil Inventories - Wednesday (4:30 pm)

US crude oil inventories fell by 1.863 million barrels to 411.6 million barrels in the week ending March 4, after a 2.597 million drop in the prior period and compared to market expectations for a 0.657 million barrel decline, according to data from the Energy Information Administration's State of Petroleum report. show up. Crude oil stocks at the delivery hub in Cushing, Oklahoma, fell 0.585 million to 25.8 million barrels, the ninth consecutive week of declines, and gasoline stocks fell by 1.405 million barrels to 244.6 million barrels, less than market expectations for a 2.105 million barrel decline. Meanwhile, distillate stocks, which include diesel and heating oil, fell 5.231 million barrels to 113.9 million barrels, more than expectations for a decline of 1.914 million barrels.

US Federal Reserve interest rate decision - Wednesday (8 pm)

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell made clear during Congressional testimony on Wednesday that the rapidly recovering US economy no longer needs such accommodative monetary policy and that the central bank will start raising interest rates at its March 15-16 meeting to curb rising inflation. Powell said he is inclined to support a 25 basis point increase but indicated that the Fed could move more aggressively if inflation does not abate as expected. However, it did provide a few additional guidance on how quickly the Fed could do so. Powell also noted that the outbreak of war in Ukraine had created a significant degree of monetary policy uncertainty.

Unemployment Claims Rates - Thursday (2:30 pm)

The number of Americans applying for new unemployment benefits increased by 11 thousand to 227 thousand in the week ending March 5, from a revised 216 thousand in the previous period and compared with market expectations of 217 thousand. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, it rose 22,025 from the previous week to 218,072, with notable increases being recorded in New York (+16,255), California (+6,233) and Kentucky (+3,134). The four-week moving average that removes weekly volatility was 231.25K, an increase of 500 and continuing claims of 1.49M, above market expectations of 1.46M.

Existing Home Sales (Feb) - Friday (4pm)

Existing home sales in the United States, which include completed transactions for single-family homes, townhouses, condominiums and co-ops, jumped 6.7% per month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.5 million in January 2022, rebounding from an adjusted decline of 3.8%. in December. It's the highest in a year, beating expectations of 6.1 million. Total home inventory fell to a new all-time low of 860,000 units and the median price for all home types was $350,300. “Buyers were likely anticipating further price increases and lower-fixing rates, and investors have added to the overall demand with all the money supply.” Hence, housing prices continue to rise aggressively. There are more listings on the upper end — homes over $500,000 — than last year, leading to less hasty decisions by some buyers. Eurozone

580,000, with the number of people looking for full-time work up by 19,500 to 397,900, while those looking for only part-time work declined 13,900 to 182,100. Meantime, employment rose 12,900 to a new record high of 13.26 million, compared with market forecasts of no growth, as part-time employment increased 30,000 to 4,177,600, while full-time employment fell 17,000 to 9,077,300. The rate edged up 0.1 points to a 7-month high of 66.2%, compared with estimates of 66%. The underemployment rate inched up 0.1 points to 6.7%, and the underutilization rate was up 0.1 points to 10.9%. Monthly hours worked in all jobs decreased by 159 million, or 8.8%, to 1,659 million hours.

United kingdom

BoE Rate Decision (March) - Thursday (2pm)

The Bank of England raised the bank's key interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.5% during its February 2022 meeting, in line with expectations. It's the first consecutive increase since 2004, which pushed borrowing costs to a two-year high even though four policymakers voted to raise the rate by 50 basis points. The committee also voted to begin reducing the stockpile of UK government bond purchases, financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by stopping the reinvestment of maturing assets. The central bank expects inflation to rise further in the coming months, approaching 6% in February and March, before peaking at around 7.25% in April, but easing back slightly to just over the 2% target in two years. Policy makers also indicated that further tightening would be appropriate in the coming months if the economy broadly develops in line with current expectations.

Canada

Core CPI (Feb) - Wednesday (2:30 pm)

Canada's headline inflation accelerated to 5.1% in January of 2022, remaining the highest since September 1991 and well above market expectations of 4.8%. Challenges associated with the COVID-19 pandemic continued to burden supply chains, and energy prices remained high. Prices rose across all eight major components, mostly shelter (6.2%) and transportation (8.3%) largely due to higher gasoline prices (31.7%) and food (5.7%). Excluding energy, the CPI rose 3.5%, reversing the 3.8% increase in December. Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose 4.3%, the fastest pace since the index was introduced in 1999. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.9%, beating market expectations of a 0.6% rise and rebounding from a 0.1% decline the previous month.

Core Retail Sales excluding Autos (MoM) (January) - Friday (2:30 pm)

Preliminary estimates showed that retail sales in Canada likely rose 2.4 percent month-on-month in January of 2022. Looking at December, retail sales were down 1.8 percent from the previous month, compared to an upwardly revised 0.8 percent increase in November And below the initial estimate, a decrease of 2.1 percent. Sales decreased in 8 of the 11 sub-sectors, mainly in furniture and home furnishings stores (-11.3%), clothing and accessories stores (-9.5%), and food and beverage stores (-0.7%). Across major Canadian provinces, losses occurred in British Columbia (-1.4 percent), largely due to severe flooding in the region affecting 15% of respondents, while retail activity also declined in Ontario (-1.8 percent) . For the year, retail trade rose 8.6 percent in December, versus an increase of 4.4 percent in November. Looking into the whole of 2021, retail sales increased by 11.6 percent.

New Zealand

GDP (Quarterly) (Q4) - Wednesday (11:45 pm)

New Zealand's economy fell 0.3% from a year earlier in the third quarter of 2021, slowing from an upwardly revised expansion of 17.9% in the prior period and above market expectations for a 1.6% decline. The economy shrank amid new restrictions and a nationwide lockdown implemented in the second half of the quarter. On a quarterly basis, the economy fell 3.7 percent in the three months to September, after a 2.8 percent rise in the second quarter and above expectations for a 4.5 percent decline.

Australia

Employment Change (Feb) - Thursday (2:30 AM)

Australia's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 4.2% in January 2022, unchanged from the previous month. The latest reading was in line with market estimates while remaining at its lowest level since August 2008, as the COVID-19 lockdown was lifted. The number of unemployed rose 5,600 to 580,000, with the number of people looking for full-time work increasing by 19,500 to 397,900, while the number of part-time job seekers only decreased by 13,900 to 182,100 . Meanwhile, employment increased by 12,900 to a new record high of 13.26 million, compared to market expectations of no growth, as part-time employment increased 30 thousand to 4177,600, while full-time employment fell 17 thousand to 9077,300. Participation rate rose 0.1 point to the highest level at 7 months at 66.2%, compared to estimates of 66%. The underemployment rate rose 0.1 point to 6.7%, and the underemployment rate rose 0.1 point to 10.9%. Monthly hours worked in all jobs decreased by 159 million, or 8.8%, to 1,659 million.