Economic Analysis

The US and UK continue to show strong numbers, while the Eurozone is lagging behind. This week we have light data, with a focus on GDP reports from the US and Germany.

Eurozone GDP contracted 1.8% in the first quarter, after a similar decline in the fourth quarter. This refers to an economy that is technically in a recession. The final euro-zone CPI came in at 1.6% in April, confirming the preliminary reading. Manufacturing continued to show strong growth, with PMI readings of 64.0 in Germany and 62.8 in the Eurozone. Business activity is showing more moderate growth, with the Services PMI for Germany coming in at 52.8 and the Eurozone at 55.1.

In the UK, employment data has been positive. The number of unemployed decreased by 15.1 thousand against an expected increase of 25.6 thousand. Unemployment decreased for the third month in a row, dropping from 4.9% to 4.8%. Wage growth remained strong at 4.0%, but was lower than expected at 4.5%.

Inflation was higher in April, as the reopening of the British economy increased economic activity. Headline inflation rose to 1.5% in April, up sharply from 0.7% previously. Core CPI rose to 1.3%, up from 1.1%.

Inflation outpaced Canada in April, with CPI rising to 3.4%, up from 2.2% and above the consensus of 3.2%. BoC CPI rose to 2.3%, up from 1.4% and above expectations of 1.3%.

The ADP employment report showed that the economy created 351,000 new jobs in April, up sharply from 266,000.

In the US, the Services PMI shone with a reading of 70.1, as the business sector showed unprecedented growth. This exceeded the estimate of 64.3. Level 50 separates expansion from contraction.

U.S. dollar

US GDP: Thursday. GDP is expected to reach the second estimate of 6.4%, which will confirm the first estimate.

euro

Final German GDP: Tuesday. The German economy contracted by 3.3% in the fourth quarter on an annualized basis. We are now waiting for the first quarter data.

German IFO business climate: Tuesday. Business confidence accelerated in April for the third month in a row, rising to 96.8. The rally is expected to continue in May, with 98.1 expected.

German GfK Consumer Climate: Thursday. Consumers remain pessimistic about economic conditions, as the index remains mired in negative territory. The estimate for the May issue is -5.3.

French Inflation Report: Friday. Inflation was generally weak in the second economy in the Eurozone. The CPI estimate for May is 0.3%.

Sterling pound

Public sector net borrowing: Tuesday. The budget deficit is steadily increasing, as the government spends more money to support the post-Covid recovery. The deficit increased to £ 27.2 billion in March but is expected to narrow to £ 13.5 billion in April.

CBI Sales Realized: Tuesday. After a series of six consecutive declines, sales volume increased in April, with strong gains of 20. The rally is expected to continue, with the May 28 consensus.

Canadian dollar

Corporate earnings: Tuesday. Corporate earnings posted a gain of 7.9% in the fourth quarter, after a whopping 44.9% gain in the third quarter. We are now waiting for the first quarter data.

Australian dollar

ANZ job announcements: Monday. The index continues to strengthen, improving to 9.4% in October. Will the rally continue in the November issue?

Business Trust NAB: Tuesday. The National Australia Bank index rebounded in October with a reading of 5, ending a series of three consecutive falls. We are now waiting for the November data.

Westpac Consumer Confidence: Wednesday. Consumer confidence slowed to 2.5% in November, down sharply from 11.9% previously. Investors are hoping for another reading in positive territory.

MI inflation forecast: Thursday. The Melbourne Institute version is a useful gauge of actual levels of inflation. The index rose to 3.5% in October, up from 3.4% previously. Will it continue to rise in the November reading?