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The most important expected economic data for this week, from 23 to 27 January 2023
The most important data expected this week
United State
US Crude Oil Inventories - Wednesday (05:30 PM)
US Oil Inventories rose to 8.408 million barrels in the week of January 13, 2023 compared to market expectations of 0.593 million barrels. Inventory is expected to rise to 1.6 million barrels in the next issuance.
Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Dec) - Thursday (03:30pm)
Durable Goods Orders in America fell by -2.1% from November 2023. This is the largest decline since April 2020 and higher than market expectations of 0.6% replacing the revised figure of 0.7% in the previous month. Durable Goods Orders are expected to rise to 2.2% in the next release.
Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (Q4) - Thursday (03:30 PM)
America's gross domestic product increased in the third quarter of 2022 to 4.4%, recording 128.24 points, which is the fourth consecutive increase in 2022. The decline in GDP for the fourth quarter may mitigate the pace of interest rate hikes in America.
Unemployment Claims Rates - Thursday (03:30 PM)
Unemployment Claims decreased in America as it fell by 15 thousand from the previous week to 190 thousand for the week ending January 14, 2023. This indicates that the labor market continues to be tight on a large scale, which may push the US Federal Reserve to tighten further. Unemployment complaints are expected to rise in the next release to 202 thousand.
New Home Sales (Dec) - Thursday (05:00 PM)
New Home Sales rose to 5.8%, missing market expectations of 4.7%. The next release is expected to be negative around -2%.
Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Dec) - Friday (03:03 PM)
This indicator is one of the favorite indicators of the US Fed, and we should focus on it exclusively. The index rose in the third quarter of 2022 to 4.7%, exactly the same as the second quarter, down from 5.6% in the first quarter, which indicates more pressure on the Federal Reserve to limit the pace of rate hikes, as inflation numbers are in a series of declines month after month. The next release may be around 3.9 - 4%.
Pending Home Sales Index (MoM) (Dec) - Friday (00:05 PM)
Pending home sales in America fell by 4% from November 2022, the sixth consecutive month in the losing streak and much worse than market expectations of around 0.8%. We point out that raising interest rates significantly reduces home sales, as the cost of borrowing increases, which limits purchases. Further declines are expected in the next release around -1% to -0.9%.
Canada
BoC Monetary Policy Committee Meeting Minutes and Interest Decision - Wednesday (05:00 PM)
The Bank of Canada raised the overnight interest rate by 50 points to 4.25% at the last meeting during 2022, in line with market expectations, which pushed the cost of borrowing to rise to the highest number since 2008. The Bank of Canada is expected to continue raising interest as economic figures indicate that the economy will continue The Canadian Bank is growing at a strong pace and is expected to continue until mid-2023. The labor market is also strong, in addition to the continued rise in inflation in the short term. Thus, the Canadian Central Bank may raise the interest rate during the coming period to 4.50% by 25 basis points.
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