Economic Analysis

The most important data expected this week

United State

Core CPI (Excluding Food and Energy) (MoM) (Aug) - Tuesday (2:30 PM)

The annual core inflation rate in the United States hit a six-month low of 5.9% in July of 2022, unchanged from the previous month and below market expectations of 6.1%.

CPI (MoM) (August) - Tuesday (02:30 PM)

The annual US inflation rate slowed more than expected to 8.5% in July 2022 from a 40-year high of 9.1% in June, and below market expectations of 8.7%. Energy CPI rose 32.9%, after hitting a 42-year high of 41.6% in June, mainly due to a significant slowdown in costs for gasoline (44% vs. 59.9%), fuel oil (75.6% vs. 98.5%) and gas natural. (30.5% vs. 38.4%) while electricity prices accelerated (15.2%, the most since February 2006). The cost for new vehicles (10.4% vs. 11.4%) and airfares (27.7% vs. 34.1%) also slowed. On the other hand, inflation continued to rise in food prices (10.9%, the largest increase since May 1979, compared to 10.4%). Shelter (5.7% vs. 5.6%); and used cars and trucks (6.6% vs. 1.7%). Compared to the previous month, the CPI was unchanged, having reached a 17-year high of 1.3% and also below expectations of 0.2%. Core inflation was flat at 5.9%, beating expectations of 6.1%, and providing some support that inflation has finally peaked.

CPI (MoM) (August) - Tuesday (02:30 PM)

The CPI for all commodities except food and energy in the US rose 0.3% month over month in July of 2022, slowing from a 0.7% rise in June, and slightly below market expectations for a 0.5% rise. This is the smallest increase in core consumer prices since March

Producer Price Index (MoM) (August) - Wednesday (02:30 PM)

US producer prices unexpectedly fell 0.5% month over month in July of 2022, after surging down 1% in June and exceeding market expectations for a 0.2% increase. It's the first drop in the PPI in more than two years, mostly due to a 16.7% drop in gasoline prices. The cost of diesel, gas fuel, oilseeds, iron, steel scrap, and grain also fell. In contrast, the cost of services increased 0.1%, mainly due to higher margins for retail fuel and lubricants (12.3%) and transportation and warehousing services (0.4%). Producers also paid more for services related to stock brokerage and handling, hospital outpatient care, automobiles, auto parts trading, and passenger transportation. On an annual basis, producer inflation fell to 9.8%, the lowest level since October and compared to expectations of 10.4%.

US Crude Oil Inventories - Wednesday (4:30 pm)

Data from the Energy Information Agency's weekly statistical bulletin showed that US gasoline stocks rose by 0.333 million barrels in the week ending September 2, compared to expectations for a decrease of 1.667 million, and after a decrease of 1.172 million barrels in the previous period.

Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug) - Thursday (2:30 PM)

US retail sales unexpectedly stopped in July of 2022, disappointing markets that had expected a 0.1% increase as sales fell at gas stations and car dealers. Sales at gas stations fell 1.8% as the gasoline price index fell 7.7%. A decrease was also observed in car and spare parts dealers (-1.6%), clothing and accessory stores (-0.6%) and in supermarkets (-0.5%). On the other hand, sales at out-of-store retailers jumped 2.7%, driven largely by the Amazon Prime Day event on July 12 and 13. Increases in building materials and garden bonuses were also recorded. and supplies merchants (1.5%), miscellaneous retailers (1.5%), electronics stores (0.4%), health and personal care stores (0.4%) and in grocery stores (0.2%) where food prices jumped 1.1%. Excluding petrol stations, sales rose 0.2% (versus 0.6% in June). Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, so-called core retail sales rose 0.8% (versus 0.7%).

Unemployment Claims Rates - Thursday (2:30 pm)

The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell by 6,000 to 222,000 in the week ending September 3, from a downwardly revised 228,000 in the previous period and well below market expectations of 240,000. The number marks the lowest weekly jobless claims rate since the last week of May, highlighting a tight labor market and giving the Fed more room to aggressively raise interest rates. On a seasonally unadjusted basis, initial claims rose 1,978 from the previous week to 175,842, with notable increases in Massachusetts (+2,055) and Oklahoma (+1,516), while sharp declines in New York (- 3,539) to settle they change. The 4-week moving average, which removes weekly volatility, was at 233,000.

Philadelphia Manufacturing Index (September) - Thursday (2:30 pm)

The US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index rose to 6.2 in August 2022 from -12.3 in July, and returned to positive territory after two consecutive negative readings and above market expectations of -5. Although the general activity indicator turned positive, it was lower, and the new orders indicator remained negative. The employment index rose, while the price indices continued to decline but remained elevated. The survey's future indicators rose slightly but continued to indicate that companies expect general declines six months from now.

Retail Sales (MoM) (August) - Thursday (02:30 PM)

US retail sales unexpectedly stopped in July of 2022, disappointing markets that had expected a 0.1% increase as sales fell at gas stations and car dealers. Sales at gas stations fell 1.8% as the gasoline price index fell 7.7%. A decrease was also observed in car and spare parts dealers (-1.6%), clothing and accessory stores (-0.6%) and in supermarkets (-0.5%). On the other hand, sales at out-of-store retailers jumped 2.7%, driven largely by the Amazon Prime Day event on July 12 and 13. Increases in building materials and garden bonuses were also recorded. and supplies merchants (1.5%), miscellaneous retailers (1.5%), electronics stores (0.4%), health and personal care stores (0.4%) and in grocery stores (0.2%) where food prices jumped 1.1%. Excluding petrol stations, sales rose 0.2% (versus 0.6% in June). Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, so-called core retail sales rose 0.8% (versus 0.7%).

United kingdom

Unemployment Change (August) - Tuesday (08:00 AM)

The UK unemployment rate was 3.8% in the second quarter of 2022, as expected, 0.1 percentage point higher than the previous three-month period (January to March 2022) but 0.2 percentage point higher. Below pre-coronavirus pandemic levels. The number of unemployed persons for up to 12 months increased by 51 thousand during the last three months, with the number of unemployed persons between 6 and 12 months increasing by 9 thousand, which is the first rise since February to April 2021. On the other hand, the number of unemployed decreased The unemployed for more than 12 months increased by 15 thousand. The number of employed people increased by 160 thousand in the second quarter, less than market expectations of an increase of 256 thousand. Layoffs remained at very low levels, but the number of job vacancies fell for the first time since August 2020. Growth in regular wages excluding bonuses fell 3% when adjusted for inflation, the largest drop since records began in 2001.

CPI (MoM) (Aug) - Wednesday (08:00 AM)

UK annual inflation rose to 10.1 per cent in July 2022 from 9.4 per cent in the previous period and slightly above market expectations of 9.8 per cent. It was the highest reading since February 1982, as prices for housing and utilities rose faster (20.0% vs. 19.6% in June), entertainment and culture (5.6% vs. 4.8%), food and non-alcoholic beverages (12.6% vs. 9.8%) and restaurants and hotels (8.9% against 8.5%). On the other hand, transfer prices fell (14.8% vs. 14.9%). Compared to the previous month, consumer prices rose 0.6 percent, down from 0.8 percent in June, but higher than expectations of 0.4 percent.

Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug) - Friday (08:00 AM)

UK retail sales unexpectedly rose 0.3 percent from the previous month in July 2022, rebounding from declines in the past three months and beating market expectations for a 0.2 percent decline. Out-of-store retail sales (mostly online retailers) rebounded 4.8 percent as a batch of promotions in July 2022 boosted purchases, while food store sales increased 0.1 percent. On the other hand, sales of motor fuels (-0.9%) and non-food stores (-0.7%) declined. Sales volumes were 2.3 percent higher than pre-pandemic levels in February 2020 but have declined over the past year.

euro

CPI (MoM) (Aug) - Friday (11:00 AM)

Preliminary estimates showed that the annual inflation rate in the eurozone accelerated to 9.1% in August of 2022 from 8.9% in July, above market expectations of 9%. Inflation broke a new record, as energy cost remained high (38.3% vs. 39.6%) and food prices continued to accelerate (10.6% vs. 9.8%). Prices also rose faster for services (3.8% vs. 3.7%) and non-energy industrial goods (5% vs. 45%). Excluding energy, inflation rose to 5.8% (vs 5.4% in July) and excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, inflation also rose to 4.3% (vs 4%). Compared to the previous month, the consumer price index rose 0.5%.

Germany

ZEW German Economic Sentiment (September) - Tuesday (11:00 am)

The ZEW index of economic sentiment for Germany fell to -55.3 in August of 2022 from -53.8 in July, the lowest level since October 2008 and below market expectations of -53.8. Also, the current conditions sub-index deteriorated to -47.6 from -45.8, the lowest level since April 2021. So financial market experts expect a further decline in Germany's already weak economic growth. "Continuing high inflation rates and the expected additional costs of heating and energy are lowering the profit outlook for the private consumption sector. In contrast, the outlook for the financial sector is improving due to the assumed additional increase in short-term interest rates."

all times +2 gmt