English
The most important economic events expected this week 16 to 20 December 2019
- UK jobs report: Tuesday, 12:30 pm. The unemployment rate reached a historic low of 3.8% in September, and an expected slight increase could reach 3.9%. Wages continued to advance at a satisfactory pace of 3.6%. These numbers have no political impact at this point, but they will influence the BoE decision later in the week.
- German IFO business climate: Wednesday, 12:00 pm. Similar to the PMI, Germany's first research center showed a slight rebound. The main index was 95 points, while the current rating was 97.9 points in November. The latest version of 2019 will likely show similar numbers.
- UK Inflation Numbers: Wed, 12:30 pm. The CPI fell to its lowest level, recording its lowest level of 1.5% annually in October. There is a slight acceleration to 1.6% expected over the coming period. The Core CPI was set at 1.7%.
New Zealand GDP: Wed 00:45 am. New Zealand saw annual growth of 2.1% in the second quarter. The minimum slowdown could be at 2% for the third time. New Zealand releases GDP numbers only once every three months, making each release a significant impact.
- Australian jobs report: Thursday, 3:30 am. The Australian labor market disappointed in October with the loss of 19,000 jobs. But expectations are higher this time, with an increase of 15,000 jobs and an increase from 66% to 66.1 in the participation rate - it is important to keep the unemployment rate unchanged at 5.3%.
- Japanese interest rate decision: Thursday, early morning. The Bank of Japan left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at -0.10% for several years, as it aims to raise inflation without causing major damage to banks. It also aims to keep long-term lending costs constant - by targeting the 10-year returns. Haruhiko Kuroda, Governor of the Bank of Japan, kept the door open for more stimulus but only revised the bank’s pledge to keep interest rates as low as required. The Tokyo-based firm is likely to leave interest rates unchanged at the last meeting of the year.
- UK Interest Rate Decision: Thursday, 3:00 pm. Two members of the Bank of England surprised the markets by voting to cut rates in November. Despite deteriorating economic conditions, the Bank of England will likely leave interest rates unchanged at 0.75% at its last meeting of the year. Bank of England Governor Mark Carney is due to end his term at the end of the year, but he may be asked to stay longer. The minutes of accompanying meetings are important, as they will highlight the voting pattern and set the stage for policy in 2020. The latest job numbers and inflation may be indicated so please pay attention to this event.
- UK GDP: Friday, 12:30 pm. The final reading of UK GDP growth in the third quarter is expected to confirm a 0.3% reading - which showed that the UK avoided recession. Any depreciation may affect the pound, especially since the monthly gross domestic product figures for October have not shown any growth.
- US GDP: Friday, 4:30 pm. The second reading of the third quarter GDP surprised the recovery to an annualized growth rate of 2.1% - better than the original 1.9%. A similar number is likely to appear on the third and last reading. Any change could lead to markets moving amid weak liquidity, as many traders will be busy spending the Christmas holidays.
All Times are KSA
