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The most important economic events expected this week 2 to 6 November 2020
The US election will be the highlight of the week, as American voters head to the polls on Tuesday. The Bank of England and the Reserve Bank of Australia will both announce their interest rate decisions, and we will take a look at the manufacturing PMIs in the Eurozone and UK.
In Germany, the preliminary CPI gained a weak 0.1%, ending a series of three consecutive declines. German GDP for the third quarter jumped 8.2%, after falling 10.1% in the second quarter. The European Central Bank maintained monetary policy at its monetary policy meeting, but strongly hinted that it will implement further easing at the December meeting. Headline inflation in the Eurozone fell 0.3%, while core CPI posted a 0.2% gain.
The Bank of Japan maintained its monetary policy, but lowered its economic and price forecast for the current fiscal year.
The Bank of Canada kept interest rates at 0.25% and indicated that it would not raise interest rates before 2023. The central bank also adjusted quantitative easing, cutting assets from "at least" CAD 5 billion per week to "at least" CAD 4 billion. In the week. . Canadian GDP showed a gain of 1.2% in August, down from 3.0%. However, this estimate exceeded 0.9%.
In the US, durable goods orders rose sharply in September. The headline reading rose to 1.9% from 0.4%. This broke the estimate of 0.5%. The core reading improved to 0.8%, up from 0.4%. And advanced GDP jumped 33.1% in the third quarter, the strongest quarter on record. However, it barely makes up for the second-quarter loss of 31.4%. There was more good news on the employment front, with jobless claims down to 751K, versus 787K previously. The core PCE price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, fell to 0.2%, down from 0.3%.
US presidential election: Tuesday, all day. Markets will closely watch the US election, as voters choose between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. The race in the US Senate is very tight, and we can expect volatility in the markets around the time of the election. If the results are challenged, the uncertainty could lead to more market volatility.
RBA interest rate decision: Tuesday, 06:30. The Reserve Bank of Australia has fixed the cash rate at 0.25% since March, but has sent broad hints to the markets that it plans to cut rates. Analysts expect the central bank to pull the trigger this week and cut interest rates to 0.10%. Investors will also be interested in the price statement, which will provide details on the central bank's view of the economy.
Bank of England interest rate decision: Thursday, 15:00. Analysts are expecting more of the same at the BoE policy meeting. Members are expected to keep the bank's official rate at 0.10% and keep quantitative easing at £ 745 billion.
Canadian Employment Report: Friday, 16:30. Job creation remains strong. In September, the economy created 378.2k jobs, up from 245.8k and well above estimates of 150.0k. The unemployment rate fell to 9.0% in September, down from 10.2%. We are now awaiting the November data, which may affect the USD / CAD movement.
