The most important expected economic data for this week, from 12 to 16 December 2022

Tuesday, December 13, 2022 - 09:55

Point Trader Group

The most important expected economic data for this week, from 12 to 16 December 2022

The most important data expected this week

United State

Core CPI (Excluding Food and Energy) (MoM) (November) - Tuesday (03:30pm)

The US core consumer price index, excluding food and energy, rose 0.3% in October of 2022, after increasing 0.6% in September. Market expectations were for a 0.5% increase. Prices for shelter, car insurance, entertainment, new vehicles, and personal care all increased, while prices for used cars and trucks, medical care, clothing, and travel fell.

CPI (MoM) (November) - Tuesday (03:30pm)

US CPI showed a rise of 0.4% MoM in October of 2022, the same as in September and a lower than expected 0.6%. The housing index had a greater contribution to the monthly increase in all items than any other component (by 0.8%). The energy index increased by 1.8%, as gasoline increased by 4%, after three consecutive declines, and electricity (0.1%), while the cost of natural gas decreased by 4.6%.

US Crude Oil Inventories - Wednesday (05:30 PM)

The latest report from the US Energy Information Administration indicated that US crude oil inventories fell by 5.187 million in the week ending December 2nd, which was the fourth consecutive drop and much larger than the expected drop of 3.305 million. This comes after 12.58 million were withdrawn in the previous week, which is the highest since June 2019.

US Federal Reserve Interest Decision - Wednesday (09:00 PM)

Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, said during a speech at the Brookings Institution on Wednesday that the Fed may lower the pace of interest rate hikes that were scheduled for December. It makes sense to slow the rate of increase as we get closer to the target which would be enough to bring down inflation. The time for a rate change may come during the December meeting. However, Powell stated that the "final interest rate" is likely to be higher than the 4.6% indicated in the September forecast. The Fed raised the target range for the interest rate by 75 basis points to 3.75%-4%, which was the sixth consecutive increase in the interest rate and the fourth consecutive quarter-point increase, which pushed up borrowing costs to the highest level since 2008.

Core Retail Sales (MoM) (November) - Thursday (03:30pm)

Retail sales in America showed a rise of 1.3% on a monthly basis in October 2022. This increase is the largest in almost eight months, after a flat reading in September, beating expectations for a 1% increase. September data indicated resilient consumer spending despite inflation and interest rate hikes. Retail sales are not adjusted for inflation.

Philadelphia Manufacturing Index (Dec) - Thursday (03:30pm)

The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index in the US fell to -19.4 in November of 2022, which is the lowest level since May 2020 and far below the expected result of -6.2. The general activity index fell further, the new orders index remained negative, and the shipments index remained positive but declining. Although the survey indicators increased slightly, they continued to indicate that companies expect a decrease in activity and new orders within six months.

Britain

Britain's construction PMI (October) - Tuesday (09:00 AM)

Britain's construction PMI fell to a three-month low of 50.4 in November of 2022, this was down from 53.2 recorded in October, indicating a decline in construction activity, attributed to lower demand and lower risk appetite among investors. The increase in interest rates and economic uncertainty also had an impact. All other sectors of the economy saw a decrease in business activity, but the only exception was the commercial sector, which saw an increase.

Unemployment Change (November) - Tuesday (09:00 AM)

The unemployment rate in the UK has increased to 3.7% since August through October of 2022, in line with market expectations. The employment rate also rose to 75.6% from 75.4%, and the number of employees rose to a record high of 29.9 million, representing an increase of 1.1 million employees. Job vacancies also saw a decline of 65,000 to 1,187,000, the fifth consecutive drop, primarily due to uncertainty in the manufacturing sector as economic pressures reduce hiring.

CPI (YoY) (November) - Wednesday (09:00 AM)

The annual rate of inflation in the UK rose to 11.1% in October of 2022, which was higher than the market expectation of 10.7. The main reason for this increase is housing and household services.

BoE Rate Decision (Dec) - Thursday (02:00pm)

The Bank of England raised interest rates by 75 basis points to 3% at its meeting in November, the biggest increase since 1989, and the cost of borrowing rose to its highest level since late 2008. Policymakers have expressed concerns about inflation, which has soared to an all-time high. He turns 40 in September. This was coupled with a poor economic outlook. The central bank also stated that additional increases in the bank's interest rates may be necessary to reach the desired inflation target, however, this increase will be less than what the market is currently expecting. The economy is expected to continue to decline in 2023 and 2024, as rising energy costs and tightening financial conditions have a negative impact on spending. Inflation is expected to start declining in early 2023, before falling sharply to below 2% in two years.

Services PMI - Friday (11:30pm)

The services PMI declined to 48.8 in November 2022, the same as the initial estimate and identical to October's reading, which was the lowest since January 2021. The reading indicated services activity declined for the second month in a row. As new business continues to decline, the volume of incoming new business continues to decline amid ongoing economic uncertainty and cost-of-living issues affecting discretionary spending. The company's expenses continued to increase at a rapid rate, with operating expenses increasing more than revenues.

euro

ECB Rate Decision (Dec) - Thursday (03:15PM)

European Central Bank policymakers agreed that the central bank should continue to tighten monetary policy in order to control inflation even in a recession, calculations for the October meeting of the European Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee showed. They noted that inflation expectations continued to fall, with the inflation rate repeatedly increasing and exceeding expectations. There is an increasing possibility that inflation will take hold and the possibility of secondary effects. The central bank has stated that it may stop the continued increase in interest rates if there is a severe and prolonged recession, which is likely to have a greater impact on inflation. In October, the European Central Bank raised its main interest rate by 75 basis points, pushing the cost of borrowing to the highest levels since early 2009.

CPI (YoY) (November) - Friday (12:00 PM)

The primary inflation rate in the Eurozone fell to 10% in November of 2022, which is higher than the expected 10.4%. Inflation has fallen for the first time since June last year, and this may indicate that price increases have reached their extreme. The rate remains high and is almost five times higher than the European Central Bank's target of 2%. Recently, the President of the European Central Bank stated that inflation in the Eurozone has not reached its highest levels and that the risks are getting higher than expected.