The most important data from 11 - 16 July 2021

Tuesday, July 13, 2021 - 01:02

Point Trader Group

The most important data from 11 - 16 July 2021

This week we have several important economic releases such as the CPI data, testimony from Fed Chairman Powell before the Senate, and the start of earnings season. It's going to be a busy week for Federal speeches as Quarles, Kashkari, Evans and Williams will all be on tour.

Tuesday will be a busy morning as the June inflation report is expected to show an easing of inflationary pressures. The monthly reading for June is expected to drop to 0.5%, while the general headline will drop a year later from 5.0% to 4.9%. Earnings season officially begins with early reports from Pepsico, JPMorgan, Fastenal and Goldman Sachs. Wall Street will be listening closely to what banks have to say about the American consumer.

On Thursday, Fed Chairman Powell will deliver his semi-annual testimony before the Senate Banking Committee. This event will be significant because Powell may start to see some easing of pricing pressures and other reasons why he is a bit pessimistic about the short-term global growth outlook. If Powell confirms his conservative and somewhat non-committal approach to tapering, we could see a rally in Treasury yields.

The June retail sales reading will attract a lot of attention on Friday given the massive failure of the last month. Investors will look to see if this trend will continue.

European Union

Europe's battle with Covid, unfortunately, is far from over. The World Health Organization has warned that a new wave of Covid in Europe is inevitable, with delta-variable cases rising. The resurgence of Covid could have a devastating effect on the summer tourist season. France has warned its citizens against vacationing in Spain in Portugal, and other countries could follow suit with advice against traveling to certain European countries.

The International Climate Conference will be held in Venice on Sunday 11 July. The President of the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve will be among the keynote speakers.

On Monday, the Eurozone Finance Minister will meet in Brussels to discuss the economic and financial issues affecting the Eurozone. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will attend.

The European Union's Foreign Affairs Council also meets in Brussels. The agenda will include geopolitical hotspots, including Afghanistan, the South Caucasus, Lebanon and Ethiopia, as well as digital technologies. The council will also hold a working lunch with Israeli Foreign Minister Lapid.

German Chancellor Merkel hosts Ukrainian President Zelensky in Berlin. The two leaders will discuss the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, which runs between Russia and Germany, as well as the conflict in Ukraine's Donbas region.

On Tuesday, Germany will release its June CPI report.

On Wednesday, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Budget Commissioner Johannes Hahn will host a press conference in Brussels. The Vice President of the European Commission will discuss the digital tax in the European Union, which the United States opposes.

The European Commission will recommend new measures under the Green Deal plan, including expanding the EU carbon market. These proposals follow the passage of a new EU climate law, which increases the EU's target of reducing emissions by 2030.

France celebrates Bastille Day, with financial markets remaining open.

Eurozone releases industrial production for the month of May.

On Thursday, German Chancellor Angela Merkel will visit the White House and meet with President Joe Biden. The agenda will include tensions over the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which transports natural gas from Russia to Germany.

The Eurozone releases its annual CPI readings on Friday, which could drop from 2.0% to 1.9%. The core CPI reading on an annualized basis is expected to remain unchanged at 0.9%.

United kingdom

On Wednesday, the UK will release its annual consumer price index for June. The consensus is 2.3%, versus 2.1% in the May report. The monthly reading is expected to decline from 0.6% to 0.1%. Bank of England Deputy Governor David Ramsden speaks at The Strand Group, at an event co-sponsored by King's Business School.

On Thursday, the UK will publish the unemployment rate for May and unemployment rates for June. Also, BoE member Michael Saunders will deliver a speech on UK inflation expectations.

Here are the most important economic data expected for this week:

Monday

US: 10-Year Treasury Auction

Tuesday

United States: Consumer Price Index

US: 30-Year Treasury Auction

Wednesday

New Zealand Dollar: Reserve Bank of New Zealand Meeting

United Kingdom: Consumer Price Index

United States: US crude oil stockpiles

US: Producer Price Index

Canada: Bank of Canada meeting