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The most important expected economic data for this week, from January 16 to January 20, 2023
The most important data expected this week
United State
Core Retail Sales - Excluding Automotive Prices (MoM) (Dec) - Wednesday (03:15pm)
The index fell by 0.2% last November, contrary to market expectations of 0.2%. The index is expected to continue declining by -0.3% in December 2022 reading.
Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) - Wed (03:15pm)
Retail sales fell by 0.6% in November 2022 and this is significantly lower than the market expectation of around 0.1%. This percentage is the largest during 2022. The figures for the month of November indicate a slowdown in consumption, although there are many discounts, due to higher inflation numbers in addition to higher interest rates. Retail sales are expected to continue declining in December 2022 to -0.4%.
PPI (MoM) (Dec) - Wed (03:30pm)
The index increased by 0.3% in November 2022, the same number for the third month in a row, after a positive revision, rising to 0.3% in October 2022 and also higher than market expectations around 0.2%. A slight decline in December PPI is expected around -0.1%.
Building Permits (December) - Thursday (03:30 PM)
Building permits fell 10.6% to a seasonally adjusted number of around 1.351 million in November 2022, the lowest number since June 2020. The December numbers are expected to point to a rise in the index to 1.4 million.
Unemployment Claims Rates - Thursday (03:30 PM)
The Unemployment Claims Number decreased by 1,000 to 205,000 during the week ending January 7, 2023, below market expectations of 215,000 claims. This figure is the lowest in 3 months, which indicates that the labor market is still tight despite the Fed's hardline policy. Expectations indicate that January 14th requests may rise to 207 thousand requests.
Philadelphia Manufacturing Index (Jan) - Thursday (03:30pm)
The index is still below its negative value, but it rose slightly by 6 points from -19.4 to -13.8 in December 2022, contrary to market expectations around -10. This is the fourth negative reading in 4 months and the sixth in 6 months. The upcoming reading is expected to indicate an improvement in the index value to -10.
US Crude Oil Inventories - Thursday (06:00 PM)
US crude oil inventories rose to 2.511 million barrels in the week ending January 6, 2023, the largest number since December 2021.
Existing Home Sales (Dec) - Friday (05:00 PM)
Existing home sales in America decreased by 7.7% from 4.430 million to 4.09 million in November 2022, which is less than the market expectation of around 4.2 and the lowest since May 2022. These numbers indicate that existing home sales continued to be weak for the ninth month in a row and are expected to continue The index decreased for the month of December to become around 4 million.
Britain
CPI (YoY) (Dec) - Wed (09:00 AM)
The annual inflation rate decreased in November 2022 to 10.7% from 11.1%, which was the largest figure since October 1981. The numbers came in below market expectations of 10.9%. December numbers are expected to come in relatively slightly lower than November at 10.5%.
Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) - Fri (09:00 AM)
Retail sales in Britain fell by 0.4% in November 2022, after a strong rate rise in the previous month (0.9%). Retail sales in December are expected to rise around 0.4%.
Euro-zone
CPI (YoY) (Dec) - Wednesday (12:00 PM)
Annual inflation in the eurozone fell to 9.2% in December 2022, the lowest in four months and below market expectations of 9.7%. Energy prices rose at a lesser pace (25.7% compared to 34.9% in the previous month). Forecasts indicate that the number will remain stable around 9.2% on January 18, 2023.
ECB Governor Lagarde Speech - Thursday (12:00 p.m.)
The European Central Bank raised interest rates by 50 basis points at its last meeting in 2022, marking the fourth hike after two hikes of 75 basis points. This indicates an increase in interest on deposits to 2%, and for loans, to 2.5%. Further rise in interest rates is expected due to inflationary pressures as inflation figures are still above the ECB's target of around 2%.
Canada
Core CPI (MoM) (Dec) - Tuesday (03:30pm)
The index rose 0.1% in November 2022 slowing from 0.7% (October's high) but slightly above market expectations. December figures are expected to come in around -0.3%.
Core Retail Sales Excluding Motor Vehicles (MoM) (November) - Friday (03:30pm)
Retail sales in October 2022 rose to 1.7%, from the revised figure for the preceding month around -0.8%, contrary to market expectations around 1.4%. This reading is the largest since May 2022. Forecasts are for a further decline to -0.6%.
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