Economic Analysis

The most important data expected this week

United State

ISM Manufacturing PMI (Dec) - Wed (05:00pm)

The Manufacturing PMI fell to 49 in November of 2022, this was lower than the expected 49.8, which would have indicated the first contraction in factory activity since May 2020. A slight uptick is expected in the next release.

Job Opportunities (JOLTs) (November) - Wednesday (03:30pm)

The number of jobs decreased by 353,000 to 10.3 million in October of 2022, which is in line with market expectations, and this indicates that demand for workers is beginning to decline as the economy faced softer expectations and higher interest rates. A drop of 200K is expected in the next release.

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (Dec) - Thursday (05:00 PM)

Private companies in the United States added 127,000 jobs in November of 2022, the lowest number since January of 2021, and far below the expected figure of 200,000 jobs. Data shows that Fed tightening has an impact on job creation and wage increases. In addition, the business is no longer in oversupply mode. The number of participants decreased, but the post-pandemic recovery is now more stable.

Unemployment Claims Rates - Thursday (03:30 PM)

Recent numbers showed the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits increased by 9,000 to 225,000 in the week ended Dec. 24, in line with market expectations of 225,000. The 4-week moving average that smooths out weekly volatility hasn't changed much, and is still indicating to a narrow job market.

US Crude Oil Inventories - Thursday (06:00 PM)

The latest report from the US Energy Information Administration indicated that crude oil inventories in the country rose by 0.718 million barrels in the week ending December 23, compared to market expectations for a decrease of 1.52 million.

Private Sector Employment Report (December) - Friday (03:30 PM)

Contrary to expectations, about 263 thousand jobs were added to the US economy in November of 2022, exceeding market expectations of 200 thousand, and after a revised 284 thousand in October. It was the lowest increase in jobs since April last year, as the labor market returned to normal after the shock of the pandemic. However, it still points to a healthy market, above the pre-pandemic average of 150,000-200,000 jobs added per month.

Unemployment Rate (December) - Friday (03:30 PM)

The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.7 percent in November of 2022, matching market expectations and remaining near a 29-month low of 3.5 percent in September. The unemployment rate has been within a narrow range of 3.5% to 3.7% since March, and this indicates that the tight labor market is likely to continue to contribute to inflation in the US for some time to come. The number of unemployed increased by 48 thousand to 6.01 million in November, while the number of employed decreased by 138 thousand to 158.5 million.

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Dec) - Friday (05:00PM)

The PMI unexpectedly rose to 56.5 in November of 2022, which was a significant increase from the previous month's 54.4, which was a record low.

Britain

Services PMI (December) - Thursday (11:30 a.m.)

A preliminary estimate indicated that the UK services PMI rose to 50.0 in December 2022, up from 48.8 in the previous month and above market expectations of 48.5. The latest data indicated a slight increase in activity in the services sector, after two months of decline, mainly due to a decrease in the number of new business orders. Meanwhile, hiring has failed to increase for 21 consecutive months, and incomplete hires have increased instead. The cost of living has gone up, but the total cost of goods has gone up even more. The future looks brighter for business confidence in December.

euro

CPI (YoY) (Dec) - Friday (12:00 PM)

The Eurozone CPI was revised to 10.1% y/y in November 2022, up slightly from the preliminary estimate of 10.0%. The rate slowed for the first time since June 2021 from an October high of 10.6%, but remained well above the ECB's mid-point target of 2.0%, suggesting policymakers will be raising interest rates for some time. Energy prices increased by less than 34.9 percent (compared to 41.5 percent in October), but remained the largest contributor to the overall price increase.

Germany

German CPI (YoY) (Dec) - Wed (03:00pm)

Germany's annual inflation rate reached 10.0% in November of 2022, which was well above the European Central Bank's target of 2%. Inflation fell to 17.1% in November from 17.8% in the previous month, mainly due to a slight increase in the cost of energy (38.7% vs. 43.0. On a monthly basis, consumer prices fell by 0.5% in November, which was the first decline in a year.

Canada

Employment Change (December) - Friday (03:30 PM)

The Canadian economy added 10.1 thousand jobs in November of 2022, exceeding market expectations of 5 thousand jobs. Full-time employment increased by 50.7K while part-time employment decreased by 40.6K. Employment increased among women of primary working age from 25 to 54, and decreased among youth ages 15 to 24. And it didn't change much among the other major demographic groups. The employment rate among women of base age reached a new record of 81.6% in November.

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